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2024 General Election Information for Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Benito County voters

Polls suggest Republicans are making gains among Black voters — especially Black men

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The vast majority of Black voters in the U.S. reliably vote Democrat, but Republicans have been making gains specifically among Black men. That's according to a recent NAACP poll that found one in four under 50 support Donald Trump over Kamala Harris. Now, that's not immediately apparent on the west side of Detroit.

(SOUNDBITE OF CLIPPING HAIR)

FADEL: When you swing by Dexter Barbershop on a Saturday afternoon, there's a Harris/Walz sign in the window, and most chairs are full.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: What's up, Joe? You all right? Snuck in here on me. I didn't even see you.

FADEL: Men and women, young and old, come to clean up and catch up at this more than half-century-old establishment. And these days, with the election just a few weeks away, conversations often turn to politics.

JOHN MOORE: I can't believe the Republican Party allowing this this rhetoric from this guy.

FADEL: That's John Moore. He's been cutting hair here for more than 20 years, and he's a lifelong Democrat.

Like what kind of rhetoric?

MOORE: You know, make the country great again. You know what I'm saying? What do you mean by that? You want to make the country great again. So you want to bring back the Jim Crow days. You want to bring back antisemitism. We don't need that. We don't need that, baby. Country's got to go forward. We got a lot to do, and I think Kamala can knock some of that down. I really do - not Donald Trump.

FADEL: Moore lived through the Civil Rights Movement, and he knows what life was before then, and in his view, could be again. That buzzing sound - it's Moore working on Jerry Montgomery's hair. He's a 65-year-old police officer who's excited about the idea of a prosecutor becoming president and appreciates Harris' humble beginnings.

JERRY MONTGOMERY: Because she worked at McDonald's, worked her way through college. I think I will trust a person more that has experienced our lifestyle, opposed to a person that had a silver spoon put in their mouth, but going to tell you that I'm going to take care of the middle class. Sure you are. Right?

FADEL: But just one chair over, another barber, William Askew, is not so sure. He's 20 years younger than Montgomery.

WILLIAM ASKEW: You know, be honest with you. I'm still on the fence. I might just not vote for nobody.

FADEL: Really?

ASKEW: She talk about building the middle class. I was like, what about the lower class? What are you going to do to help the lower class? I know half the people I see every day are lower-tier, lower-class, not the middle class. What's the solution for that?

FADEL: Michelle Tucker walks in.

MICHELLE TUCKER: Spicy or barbeque?

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: I'll take spicy.

TUCKER: Spicy.

FADEL: She's taking orders for the home-cooked meals she sells. And on her route, she's been kind of surprised by what she hears. Do you feel like there's some excitement for Kamala Harris in this neighborhood? For Donald - like, who are people leaning towards when you go out and talk to people?

TUCKER: I mean, you know, it's kind of 30-70.

FADEL: For who? For...

TUCKER: Some for her, some for him.

FADEL: Seventy for who?

TUCKER: Kamala. But you got a lot of African American men that I notice - they say they're not going to vote for her. Why? I can't tell you why.

FADEL: And that growing support for Trump Tucker talks about - if you dig a little deeper, it's not hard to find in West Detroit. Right around the corner, a group of longtime friends all in their 40s are hanging out. Are all - can I ask who you're voting for?

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: Democrat.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #4: Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #5: Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #6: Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #7: Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #8: Undecided.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #9: Donald Trump.

FADEL: At first, they don't want to talk. Politics often leads to arguments, they say, but then they come around. Only one will give his full name. The others give just an initial so they can speak candidly in this tense political moment. I turn to the one decided Harris voter, B, and ask what his top issues are.

B: It's the civil rights issue and abortion - my daughter having control of her own body.

FADEL: So you really do feel that civil rights will roll back under Donald Trump?

B: Yes. Yes. Yes. As a people, we won't be able to survive that.

FADEL: As a people - as...

B: As a Black people, we - there's no way we would survive something like that.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #10: You think we're about to go back to slavery?

B: I think we're about to go back to the days of you need papers to be on the streets. Dog, if you read that Project 25, we are going back.

FADEL: He's referring to a conservative guide book called Project 2025 that was put together by Trump loyalists. It calls for things like stricter controls on abortion, mass deportations, and rolling back LGBTQ rights. That last one is a top issue for a couple of these guys like J, who stopped voting for the Democrats after gay marriage was legalized.

J: This stuff is on daytime TV...

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #11: They forcing it on us.

J: That's when I left Democrats alone.

FADEL: Republican anti-LGBTQ talking points are appealing to more conservative men pretty much across demographics. And then as they predicted, the conversation gets heated.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #12: So you want to give up your right and your daughter right...

FADEL: Another friend, Bobby Stokes, hears the chatter and walks up.

UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #12: We up here politicking.

BOBBY STOKES: I hear, man. I hear.

STOKES: I want to chime in, but y'all...

FADEL: Stokes has the same top issue this election as a lot of people in this working class neighborhood.

STOKES: Economy - I got to be able to eat, man. I need some wiggle room with my check. I don't I don't have enough wiggle room to survive.

FADEL: When I ask him who he thinks will deliver, he tells me...

STOKES: Only thing I'm going to say, I haven't made my mind up yet. I'm almost 50. I've never been alive where they just appointed somebody to go run for the presidency. They always had a debate. They had a process. And they skipped the process. And then they just drew Kamala there.

So my thing is, why? Why would they just throw her there, number one? Then number two, when you look at the world, when they had these meetings, it's going to be, like, representing China, a man, representing Russia, a man. So then the big, bad strong U.S. going to have Kamala. In my opinion, I don't think the world is ready for it. I'm not saying that I'm not 'cause, like I said, I'm on the fence. If I can get a better understanding of her agenda, I'll probably go her way.

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

OK. Leila, you really got the information there.

FADEL: Yeah. I mean, we ran into this group of friends, and they really gave an unvarnished truth of what they think.

MARTIN: You know, OK, so now this is - first of all, really fascinating - but now I'm wondering if you heard those kinds of sentiments from other voters that you talked to.

FADEL: Actually, yes. And it's a trend we've been seeing for a few years now, really across demographics. Republicans are making inroads among the socially conservative within minority communities who typically vote for Democrats. And some of that is over the culture war issues that you heard in this piece from J. And we saw that here with Conservative Arab and Muslims well before the larger community started getting angry at Biden and the Democrats over Gaza. And the economy is also a really big issue with inflation and interest rates. It's a tough time for so many Americans.

MARTIN: Right, these close races. These margins really matter. Leila Fadel in Michigan. Really, thanks so much for bringing all this reporting to us this week.

FADEL: Thanks, Michel. I'm excited to come back to D.C. and see you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Michel Martin is the weekend host of All Things Considered, where she draws on her deep reporting and interviewing experience to dig in to the week's news. Outside the studio, she has also hosted "Michel Martin: Going There," an ambitious live event series in collaboration with Member Stations.
Leila Fadel is a national correspondent for NPR based in Los Angeles, covering issues of culture, diversity, and race.