MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We're going to talk about - more about all of these issues with Ambassador Tom Shannon because he served as a diplomat in Venezuela. He was later ambassador to Brazil. He was also undersecretary of state for political affairs under President Obama and during President Trump's first term. Now he is a senior international policy adviser at the law firm Arnold & Porter, and he was nice enough to come by our studios this morning. Good morning, Ambassador. Thanks for joining us.
TOM SHANNON: Hi. Good morning. Delighted to be here.
MARTIN: So let me just briefly start with the president's claims to Venezuelan oil. How might exactly the country turn over tens of millions of barrels of oil to the U.S. to then be sold at market price, as the president said is going to happen?
SHANNON: It's not clear at this point. He did say that secretary of energy would handle this. The U.S. does purchase oil for our strategic oil reserves, but typically, the United States is not in the business of buying oil, refining it or selling it on a market. So it's not clear if he's going to use private brokers, private refineries, private companies or how this is going to be done, but I'm sure the details are going to emerge in the near term.
MARTIN: So let me just talk about some of the things that Franco brought up, which is, first of all, much of the Maduro regime remains in place. As a diplomat, you worked with Maduro. You met the new interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez. First of all, what do you understand the president to mean when he talks about running Venezuela? And how is Delcy Rodriguez likely to react to what the president is saying about what he expects from her?
SHANNON: When the president says we're running Venezuela, I don't believe he means we're governing it. I actually think the president wants to avoid the mistakes we made in Iraq and Afghanistan when we took over a country entirely and were responsible for all aspects of the administration of the state.
What I think he's trying to say is that we're going to set a direction for it, that we're going to put it on an economic recovery path and that we're going to open up its oil and gas reserves to the world in a way that is consonant with U.S. interests. The challenge that he's going to face, however, is that by removing President Maduro, he did not effect regime change. He effected a leadership change. The Chavista state is still in place, and this is the group that he has chosen to work with.
MARTIN: So do we have a sense of what the administration's goals for Venezuela actually are? I mean, is it to restore democracy, or is it to ensure a compliant regime? Because aren't - those aren't the same things. Is it to restore a decent standard of living? - which is one way to curtail this - these immigration flows because that's why so many people are fleeing the country. Or is it to control the oil resources to benefit the U.S. and to end drug trafficking? - as he claims that they are sort of a pivotal part of that. Do we have a sense of what his real priorities are?
SHANNON: They're not entirely clear yet, but I think in the short term, he needs a compliant regime. And I think in the long term, he does have in mind some kind of political transition. To what is not clear. How is not clear. And it's not at all clear whether this compliant regime will comply. And this is the challenge that he is going to face because the leadership that has been left behind in Caracas is thoroughly Chavista, thoroughly committed to the vision of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro.
And they believe themselves not only to be radical revolutionaries, but also the last of the South American anti-imperialists. And I have trouble imagining them, whatever concessions they make in the short term, to survive. I have trouble imagining them being our tool in reshaping Venezuela.
MARTIN: Do you have a - any sense of why the president is so reluctant to embrace the opposition? There were elections. There is a sense that - this is one of the points that Venezuelans that we've spoken to in recent days have impressed upon us, that unlike Iraq, there were elections. There is an opposition, which is functional, which does seem to have legitimacy. The president seems to be very unwilling to embrace them in any way. Do you have any sense of why that is?
SHANNON: I believe that he - I think he understands the importance of the Democratic opposition. I think he understands that Maria Corina Machado and the candidate who supposedly won the 2024 elections, Edmundo Gonzalez, did indeed overwhelmingly win that election and that they do have broad public support.
But I think what the president realizes is that, as I noted earlier, the state - in other words, the security forces, the armed forces, the structures of state, the judiciary and beyond - are all Chavista. And I think he's reluctant to try to impose a democratic opposition on a state that has not been deconstructed. But the question is, how do you deconstruct it? And in the process, how do you show a degree of respect for the Venezuelan people? Because at the end of the day, the Venezuelan people are that part of the equation that has been left out.
MARTIN: One question I have for you based on your long career at the State Department is given all of the draconian sort of cuts to the State Department and agencies like USAID and to organizations like the National Democratic Institute under this administration, are the resources there, the infrastructure in the United States there, to effectuate and support the kind of transition that the president seems to envision? Because those are the agencies and the people who would carry that out. I mean, when you talk about just providing sort of food assistance and things of that sort, I mean, those are the agencies that would carry that out. So does the infrastructure still exist in this country to support the kind of changes that the president is calling for?
SHANNON: The short answer is no. The reality is is that by removing USAID, the United States no longer has neither the personnel nor the structures and systems, nor the capacity to deliver large amounts of development aid and assistance to other countries. And on top of that, we have no embassy in Caracas. We haven't had an embassy since 2019. And we've cut anywhere from a quarter to a third of our professional diplomatic staff around the world. And so we don't have people who could be surged into Venezuela to play a role, and we don't have the means to protect them, even if we could, on the ground.
And so in order for the United States to play a role inside of Venezuela, we would have to reopen our embassy, put hundreds, if not thousands, of people on the ground and dedicate resources in a way that we just can't do right now.
MARTIN: A lot to talk about here. Just to sort of clarify for folks who may not follow these issues as closely as you have done, you're saying - by Chavista, you mean followers of...
SHANNON: Correct.
MARTIN: ...Hugo Chavez...
SHANNON: Yes, indeed.
MARTIN: ...Who was the predecessor to Nicolas Maduro.
SHANNON: Exactly.
MARTIN: That is Ambassador Tom Shannon, former undersecretary of state for political affairs. He's currently with Arnold & Porter, an international senior adviser there. Thank you so much for coming by and sharing these insights with us.
SHANNON: Thank you. A pleasure.
MARTIN: I do hope we'll talk again.
SHANNON: OK.
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