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Ahead of Trump-Netanyahu meeting, a look at Israel's shifting goalposts in the war

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

President Trump also has a meeting tomorrow with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss a new U.S. plan to end the Gaza war. The war is intensifying with an Israeli ground invasion into Gaza City fully underway. As NPR's Carrie Kahn reports, this latest offensive is unlikely to deal Hamas the final blow that Netanyahu wants.

CARRIE KAHN, BYLINE: During Israel's nearly two-year war in Gaza, Netanyahu has repeatedly declared Hamas' imminent defeat.

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PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: (Non-English language spoken).

KAHN: "We are on the path to absolute victory within reach, just months away," he said back in February 2024. Israeli forces were preparing to assault Rafah in Gaza's south, what Netanyahu then called Hamas' last stronghold. Rafah was razed. More than a million people were displaced. Yet Hamas continued on, as did Netanyahu's repeated total victory claims, subsequent offenses, deadly airstrikes and ground attacks. Nearly all of Gaza's population has since been displaced, most left without adequate food or safe shelter. The death toll now passing 65,000. A third killed are children, according to Gaza's health ministry.

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NETANYAHU: We're not done yet.

KAHN: Friday at a speech at the U.N., Netanyahu once again claimed total victory is near.

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NETANYAHU: The final elements, the final remnants of Hamas, are holed up in Gaza City. They vow to repeat the atrocities of October 7 again and again and again, no matter how diminished their forces.

KAHN: Israel will, quote, "finish the job as fast as possible," Netanyahu said to a small crowd remaining in the U.N. assembly.

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KAHN: Delegates from dozens of countries had walked out as Netanyahu prepared to speak. Despite intense international pressure and even his top general saying Hamas is sufficiently weakened, Netanyahu presses on. But total victory over Hamas is not militarily possible, says Michael Milshtein, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence officer.

MICHAEL MILSHTEIN: This is not a strategy. This is a slogan. You know, strategy must be more complicated. And unfortunately, today, we do not get any answers or serious answers.

KAHN: Even as Israel moves into Gaza City with what could be one of the largest forces to date - estimates run as high as a hundred thousand troops - Milshtein says Hamas will take heavy losses, but they will not surrender.

MILSHTEIN: Because after two years, it didn't happen. So why do you believe that even after an operation - the current one in Gaza - Hamas will be changed? It won't happen.

KAHN: They will most likely regroup as a guerrilla force, he says, especially, he adds, since Israeli troops will stay and occupy the city. Netanyahu and his far-right coalition have signaled troops will not retreat as they did in previous operations. That greatly worries Gaza resident Mohammed Amer (ph), who just recently fled his home in the north and is now living in what Israel says is a humanitarian zone, which he says has been hit recently by airstrikes. He's cobbled together a tent for his wife, children and his adult daughter and her family.

MOHAMMED AMER: (Non-English language spoken).

KAHN: "This war has become bigger than just beating Hamas, which has no local support," he says. "Israel is using Hamas as a pretext to do what it really wants to do - displace Palestinians from Gaza once and for all," he says. Israel's ordered all of Gaza City's nearly 1 million residents south. The military says the majority have fled, but hundreds of thousands still remain. It's levelled wide swaths of eastern neighborhoods, and tanks have been seen approaching deeper into Gaza City.

Across the border in Egypt, retired army general and military expert Samir Ragheb says there are an estimated 3- to 4,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza City. They still have access to arms, ammunition and can recycle unexploded ordnance, but he says they're no match for Israel's vast troop numbers.

SAMIR RAGHEB: (Non-English language spoken).

KAHN: "Of course, Israel outstrips Hamas," he says. And he notes, even at the start of the war, when Hamas was much stronger, Israel didn't deploy such a large force into a heavily populated city. Israeli military spokesman Nadav Shoshani insists there are still Hamas military targets to clear in Gaza City, including a vast underground tunnel network, which he says is operational.

NADAV SHOSHANI: We're ready to keep fighting for as long as we need to. Hamas needs to be removed from power, disarmed and the hostages need to be released.

KAHN: Many of the remaining 48 held in Gaza - 20 believed to still be alive - might be in Gaza City, which worries the hostages' families greatly. And there's no telling if Gaza City is really Israel's final battleground. In his speech Friday at the U.N., Netanyahu even corrected himself.

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NETANYAHU: Just look at what we're doing now in Gaza City, the last Hamas stronghold. One of the two last strongholds.

KAHN: Signaling the war's goalpost could move once again.

Carrie Kahn, NPR News, Tel Aviv. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Carrie Kahn is NPR's International Correspondent based in Mexico City, Mexico. She covers Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central America. Kahn's reports can be heard on NPR's award-winning news programs including All Things Considered, Morning Edition and Weekend Edition, and on NPR.org.