ADRIAN MA, HOST:
European leaders are walking a difficult line as they calculate their responses to the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran. For example, earlier today, Switzerland's defense minister, Martin Pfister, called the war a violation of international law. Meanwhile, other officials have taken a different tack. Here's German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meeting with President Trump at the White House this past week.
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FRIEDRICH MERZ: We are on the same page in terms of getting this terrible regime in Tehran away.
MA: Then there's U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who initially insisted his country would not join the U.S. and Israel in their strikes. But his position is evolving.
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PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER: When Iran started attacking countries around the Gulf and the wider region, the situation changed. Iran has now fired drones and missiles at 10 countries that did not attack them.
MA: To help us make sense of these responses and the politics at work here, we're joined now by Constanze Stelzenmuller. She's a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who specializes in transatlantic relations, international law and security policy. Thanks for joining ALL THINGS CONSIDERED.
CONSTANZE STELZENMULLER: My pleasure.
MA: So let's start big picture here - what stands out to you about Europe's reaction to the war?
STELZENMULLER: Well, I think the obvious thing to say first, and just so there's no lack of clarity about this, nobody in Europe, whether it's leaders or the general public, is enamored of the regime of Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards. I think everybody is glad to see them ousted. And there is tremendous empathy for the suffering of Iranian civil society over the past decade and especially in recent years. But it's clear how conflicted European leaders are because they are, A, deeply concerned about U.S. and Israeli goals, and they're also wondering about the consequences for their own security situation in Europe.
MA: So they're having to splint kind of multiple political plates here.
STELZENMULLER: Precisely.
MA: So let's go back to German Chancellor Merz for a second. When he met with Trump in the Oval Office, he said that Germany and the U.S. are, quote, "on the same page." What do you make of that?
STELZENMULLER: I think that when he was in the Oval Office, Chancellor Merz was, above all, trying to avoid a sort of Zelenskyy-type situation of being berated and possibly thrown out. He had said beforehand that he thought that international law, you know, didn't provide any good answers for the situation. He has since walked back his support somewhat. Overall, it has to be said that Europeans have divided into several camps, and there are some that have stayed aligned with the United States. There are some that are Atlanticists by inclination, such as the Germans, the British and the French, certainly. And then there are those that you've quoted who have stuck with critique based on international law.
MA: And then what about U.K. Prime Minister Starmer? I mean, he seems to have changed his mind about supporting this war, and President Trump mocked him on social media saying, quote, "we don't need people that join wars after we've already won," unquote. So can you parse out what's going on here?
STELZENMULLER: Adrian, the countries in Europe that have American bases on their territories have, I think, decided - with the exception of the Spanish - that it is not worth fighting the Americans over the usage of those bases. That is true for the Germans. That is true for the Italians. That is true for the British.
MA: The bases that Americans are using for some of these operations.
STELZENMULLER: Exactly. That said, I would not construe that as support for the strikes or their consequences. Europeans are largely concerned about two things. Does this bring regime change and alleviation of the suffering of Iran's civil society? Or does it bring chaos to the region and insecurity to Europe? And quite frankly, at this point, it looks more like the latter.
MA: Turning to one more European leader, French President Emmanuel Macron, while he said France is not joining the war, he is sending his country's only aircraft carrier to the region. So just square this circle for us.
STELZENMULLER: Let me perhaps put this into a larger context. Several countries, including Greece, the United Kingdom and France, have sent military assets, including naval and air assets, to the Eastern Mediterranean. They're doing that to protect the security of Europe. Notably, the island of Cyprus, which is a member of the European Union, has been hit by an Iranian drone strike. And so the concern here of European leaders right now is protection of European bases and European publics and European territory.
MA: And my understanding is that part of it is also about protecting the flow of energy, which Europe relies on coming from the region.
STELZENMULLER: Yes, absolutely. The Eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot for shipping, for pipelines and for cables. There is a very real concern that - as Iran has already attacked nearly a dozen additional countries in an effort to export the war, there is a very real concern that this will endanger European citizens. It will create refugee flows. It might, in due time, increase the risk of terrorism in Europe. And it is already raising the price of oil and gas and shipping costs, including insurance costs. So yes, it's about, shall we say, putting down assets in an attempt to create some stability in a region that is clearly really heating up in ways that appear very difficult to control.
MA: I mean, even before the U.S. and Israel went to war with Iran, it seems clear that Europe's relationship to the U.S. was already changing, and that has a lot to do with the war in Ukraine, which has triggered a lot of hard discussions about how to deal with the effects on energy, natural gas and oil. Can you talk about how the war in Ukraine has altered how these European countries see their security role in Europe compared to the Middle East?
STELZENMULLER: Well, let's start with the leader statement that we didn't mention, which is Ukrainian President Zelenskyy offering the support of Ukrainian anti-drone capabilities to European and American actors in the region. That is truly remarkable. And the truth is that Ukraine has very significant experience to bring to bear here. The Russian full-scale invasion utterly changed the way in which Europeans think about their regional security and their alliances. This is really an everything everywhere, all at once situation for the Europeans. They have seen a relationship with Russia become completely hostile. The relationship with China is more and more fraught as the Chinese overtly support the Russians. The relationship with the Trump administration is, shall we say, complicated. And now the events in the Middle East look - to a European observer - as though they might already be spiraling out of control and creating a conflagration that is already lapping at the periphery of Europe. So really, it is everything everywhere, all at once.
MA: We've been speaking with Constanze Stelzenmuller. She's director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Thank you for joining us.
STELZENMULLER: Thank you, Adrian. Well, it's been a pleasure. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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