By a 12-point margin, registered voters say they'd prefer to elect a Democrat to Congress over a Republican, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
The poll finds more voters think Democrats would do a better job dealing with gas prices, the economy, and foreign policy than Republicans amid rising prices and the war in Iran. A majority also say it is more important to back candidates with new ideas who will bring about change than those with experience and a proven record.
President Trump continues to sit at near record low approval ratings, with just 39% approving of his job and the highest share of strong disapproval — 53% — since the question was first asked in 2017.
In the final weeks of the 2026 campaign, Democrats have a notable edge in voter enthusiasm and support from independents as a building wave of backlash to the party in power comes into focus.
The survey of 1,280 respondents was conducted September 14-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, meaning results could be about 3.8 points higher or lower. Respondents were reached by live caller, text and online.
Trump on the ballot
"I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot," Trump told Republicans at an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month. Many voters seem to have taken Trump's insistence to heart.
A plurality of voters (45%) say their choice for Congress is a vote against President Trump, including four in five Democrats and about half of independents. About a quarter of voters — including 59% of Republicans and 51% of Trump 2024 voters — say their vote is about supporting the president.
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About a third of voters say that Trump is not much of a factor in their choices, and 41% of those are Republican.
Overall, registered voters say they were more likely to pick a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican, 53% to 41%. This marks a 13-point swing from how much Trump won the 2024 popular vote by and is one of the reasons that House districts and Senate races in solidly conservative areas are competitive this fall.
The double-digit swing highlights the potential disparity in voter enthusiasm that could see Democrats regain control of the House and even the Senate. Trump 2024 voters are more likely to say they are not following the midterm election closely than those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. They are also less likely to care as much about who wins control of Congress and less likely to have been contacted by someone encouraging them to vote in the election.
These dynamics are one reason why Democrats are competitive in Senate races held in states where Trump won big in 2024 like Ohio (11 points), Alaska (13 points), Iowa (13 points) and Texas (14 points) that could give them a majority in that chamber.
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Republicans lose advantage on key issues
More than a year and a half into Trump's return to office, a solid majority of voters (59%) continue to disapprove of the president's performance in office while 39% approve.
Overall disapproval has remained the same since May but the intensity of that disapproval has increased: 53% of voters strongly disapprove, the highest mark recorded at any point during Trump's two terms. Since his return to office, Trump has been viewed less favorably by voters, too, from a 44% favorability rating in January 2025 to just 37% today.
The Republican Party has lost its advantage on several key issues in the eyes of voters, including immigration: 41% say the Democratic Party would do better while 38% say Republicans. In February 2024, it was 42% for Republicans and 30% for Democrats.
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By a wider margin, voters also think Democrats would be better for the economy (42% to 38%), gas prices (40% to 27%) and foreign policy (42% to 36%). These four are top issues for the midterms and where Republican candidates have begun to break with Trump.
Last week Florida Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a district where Trump won by more than 14 points in 2024, released a campaign ad telling the president "some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far."
This week, Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson and former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers, both Republican Senate nominees, reversed their positions to come out in favor of ending the Iran war and called for suspension of gas taxes to combat rising prices.
According to AAA data, the statewide average for diesel fuel is more than $6.31 a gallon in Iowa and $6.88 in Michigan, both the highest record average prices in their tracking history.
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